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U.S. Pending Home Sales Probably Fell for Third Month in Four

Written on July 8, 2008

Americans signed fewer contracts to buy previously owned homes in May for the third month in four, a sign home prices have yet to touch bottom, economists said before a private report today.

The index of pending home resales fell 3 percent after a 6.3 percent gain in April, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 36 economists before a report from the National Association of Realtors.

Would-be homeowners are putting off purchases as they expect further price declines and as higher mortgage rates and tougher lending standards make it harder to qualify for loans. Slumping home construction will continue to hurt growth while falling property values undermine the consumer spending that makes up two thirds of the economy.

“Prices are still coming down and that is pushing buyers to the sidelines,'' Anna Piretti, a senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York, said before the report. “With credit tighter, it's more difficult to get a mortgage.''

The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release the figures at 10 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a drop of 6 percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.

Another report from the Commerce Department at the same time today may show that wholesale inventories rose 0.7 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That compares with a 1.3 percent gain in April.

Leading Indicator

The pending home resales report is considered a leading indicator because it tracks contract signings. Closings, which typically occur a month or two later, are tallied in a separate report from the Realtors on actual home resales.

The Realtors group will release its report on June existing home sales on July 24. Purchases in May rose 2 percent to a 4.99 million pace, from a 4.89 million rate the prior month that was the lowest level in at least nine years easy payday loans. At the May sales rate, it would take 10.8 months to sell all the houses on the market.

Continued declines in home prices and increases in mortgage rates will probably extend the slump in sales. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage ended the month of June at 6.33 percent, up from an average 5.9 percent in the first week of May, according to Freddie Mac, the No. 2 U.S. purchaser of home loans.

Other measures also show sales may continue to decline. The Mortgage Bankers Association's index of applications for loans to purchase homes has fallen 10 percent since the beginning of May, nearing a five-year low at the end of June.

Case-Shiller Index

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by 15.3 percent from a year earlier, the most on record, the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index showed on June 24.

Falling property values and tighter lending standards make it harder for people to refinance their home loans before their adjustable rate mortgages reset at higher rates.

That has pushed up foreclosures, adding to the glut of unsold properties. Banks repossessed twice as many homes in May and foreclosure filings rose 48 percent from a year ago, RealtyTrac Inc. said in a report on June 13.

One in every 483 U.S. households either lost a home to foreclosure, received a default notice or was warned of a pending auction, RealtyTrac said. That was the highest rate since the Irvine, California-based company began reporting in January 2005 and the 29th consecutive month of year-over-year increases.

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