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Confidence among U.S. consumers probably fell this month to the lowest level in more than 14 years as Americans fretted over jobs, record gasoline prices and falling home values, economists said before a report today.

The Conference Board's confidence index probably fell to 61, the lowest since October 1993, from 64.5 in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists. A separate report will show property prices continued to drop in February.

Shrinking home equity, mounting job losses and soaring food and fuel prices are causing Americans to retrench, contributing to a slowdown in growth that some economists have called a recession. Federal Reserve policy makers may lower interest rates again tomorrow to try to stabilize financial markets and shore up consumer and business confidence.

“Growing pain at the gas pump will likely weigh heavily on consumer attitudes'' in coming months, said Russell Price, a senior economist at H&R Block Financial Advisors in Detroit. “The current drop in consumer confidence is consistent with past recessionary periods. This likely indicates a slowdown in consumer spending.''

Economists' forecasts ranged from 57 to 70. The Conference Board, a private New York-based research group, will issue the report at 10 a.m.

Figures from S&P/Case-Shiller at 9 a.m. may show home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in February by the most on record. Values probably declined 12 percent from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists polled.

Modifying Loans

Bank of America Corp., seeking approval of its Countrywide Financial Corp. takeover, said yesterday it will modify at least $40 billion in troubled mortgage loans over the next two years to keep customers in their homes. The move would help as many as 265,000 homeowners, Liam McGee, president of global consumer and small-business banking, said in Los Angeles at a U.S. Federal Reserve hearing on the pending purchase.

Falling home prices leave Americans with less equity to tap for buying expensive items like automobiles or appliances.

Cars and light trucks sold at an average 15.2 million annual pace in the first three months of the year, the fewest since the third quarter of 1998. Some 14.9 million autos will be sold this year, the fewest since 1995, Standard & Poor's forecast this month cash advance today.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, probably rose at a 0.7 percent annual pace in the first three months of the year, the smallest gain since the fourth quarter of 1991, economists project the Commerce Department's report on gross domestic product tomorrow will show.

The economy probably expanded at a 0.5 percent pace, the least in five years, according to the survey median.

Recession Odds

The odds of the economy entering a recession this year were 70 percent, according to the median estimate of economists polled earlier this month, up from 50 percent in a March survey. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a private research group in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is the arbiter of when contractions begin and end.

Another confidence measure, the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment issued last week, fell in April to the lowest level in 26-years.

Fed policy makers, battling to contain losses in financial markets and cushion the economic slowdown, are forecast to lower the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to 2 percent on April 30, adding to 3 percentage points of reductions since September.

Job Losses

The economy lost 80,000 jobs in March, the most in five years, following a 76,000 drop in payrolls in each of the prior two months, according to figures from the Labor Department. Economists project the government's employment report, due May 2, will show job losses extended to a fourth month in April.

Rising fuel costs have contributed to a drop in auto sales and prompted some shoppers to take fewer trips to malls. The average price of regular unleaded gasoline rose to a record $3.60 a gallon last week, according to data from AAA.

Americans aren't just cutting back on expensive items. Starbucks Corp., the world's biggest chain of coffee shops, forecast last week that annual profit would decline for the first time in eight years on slowing U.S. sales.

“The current economic environment is the weakest in our company's history,'' Chief Executive Howard Schultz said in an April 24 statement.

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