Morgan Stanley Boosts U.S. 4th-Quarter Growth Forecast to 5.1%
Written on December 29, 2009
Economic growth in the U.S. this quarter is accelerating even more than previously anticipated as business investment picks up and stockpiles fall at a slower pace, according to economists at Morgan Stanley in New York.
The world’s largest economy is poised to grow at a 5.1 percent annual rate from October through December, according to a revised forecast by Morgan Stanley following the Commerce Department’s report today on durable goods. The new estimate is a percentage point higher than their earlier projection.
Durable goods bookings minus demand for transportation equipment, which is often volatile, climbed 2 percent in November, almost twice as much as the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Sales of business equipment, used in calculating gross domestic product, rose 0.8 percent in November after a 1 payday loans for people with bad credit.5 percent jump a month earlier.
A 33 percent slump in civilian aircraft limited the gain in total durable goods orders to 0.2 percent.
It was a “much stronger than expected report,” Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley wrote in note to clients. Combined with revisions to October, the figures are “pointing to a much better outlook” for fourth-quarter corporate spending, he said.
Business investment in equipment and software may rise at a 5 percent annual pace this quarter, up from their previous estimate that called for a 3.5 percent drop, Wieseman said. Smaller declines in inventories will add about 2.8 percentage points to growth, he said. The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
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